Tax season 2026 is here, and millions of Americans are getting ready to file their 2025 returns. This year, however, a number of taxpayers are left wondering whether their refunds will be larger compared to recent years. They are also raising questions about the possible reasons and what they can expect to see when they submit their tax returns. Due to a confluence of factors, including changes in legislation that took effect recently, inflation adjustments, and the timing of withholding, many taxpayers may end up with unusually high refunds.
Being aware of these changes and how the IRS operates in issuing refunds can help people plan accordingly, potentially avoid delays, and maybe even help them make the most of what they get.
1. Opening of the 2026 Filing Season
The 2026 tax season is underway as of the end of January, and most taxpayers have until April 15 to file for that year. They can e-file their taxes or mail their tax return, if they prefer. However, the IRS does recommend e-filing with direct deposit, considering how faster and secure that method is. At the same time, it enables taxpayers to check the status of the refund online. On the other hand, paper returns may take longer to process and are more likely to be delayed or even lost.
One thing is certain, that it will be a busy processing season for the IRS this year. The expectations are that over 160 million individual returns are being filed. A lot of taxpayers may be expecting refunds because they overpaid, either through payroll withholding or by making quarterly estimated payments, or because they qualify for refundable credits such as the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Child Tax Credit.
With such a long line of returns, the IRS emphasizes the importance of providing accurate information and documentation during the return filling process. So they advise to double-check your forms and documentation before you file in order to avoid errors and unwarranted hold-ups, and help you get any refund you are due as quickly as possible.
2. Why Refunds Are Expected to Be Larger in 2026
Why taxpayers expect the average tax refund for the 2026 filing season to be larger than it has been in recent years is because of a number of factors. These include the 2025 enacted law, expanded deductions, enhanced credits, and annual inflation adjustments for both taxable income and income thresholds for credits. Armed with a basic knowledge of these three elements, taxpayers might have an approximate idea of how big their refund would be and plan their finances accordingly.
A. Tax Law Changes in 2025
A series of sweeping tax revisions were enacted by Congress in mid-2025 and backdated to the beginning of the year. Some provisions retained existing individual tax breaks, others broadened them, and still more added new relief for families and individual taxpayers. The overall goal was to provide temporary relief while addressing longer-term financial strains generated by inflation and rising household costs.
The question was—but when? The IRS did not immediately revise payroll withholding tables to incorporate the new provisions. Due to that lag, a host of workers had more taxes withheld from their paychecks in 2025 than they truly owed. When returns are filed at the beginning of 2026, that over-withholding should translate into bigger refunds, especially for workers whose employers were slow to make payroll system adjustments. This gap between withholding and actual tax liability tends to push refund amounts higher, particularly for middle-income taxpayers who were overpaying by small amounts throughout the year.
B. Expanded Deductions
In addition to withholding changes, a lot of taxpayers are also enjoying expanded credits and deductions that are effective in the 2025 tax year. The standard deduction was increased, which allows for single, joint, and head of household filers to have more of their income shielded from taxes than they did in the past. In addition, new deductions were introduced for certain types of wages, deferred income, and eligible expenditures, enabling even more individuals to lower their tax bills.
A reduction in taxable income often results in larger refunds, especially for those whose withholding was calculated based on outdated income figures. For some taxpayers, the increase in deductions could — in the best cases — translate into hundreds or thousands of extra dollars, double-digit percent increases for those who need it most, making it one of the reasons that refunds are expected to be bigger in 2026.
C. Enhanced Tax Credits
Certain tax credits that directly offset your taxes, some of which are refundable, were either expanded or extended through 2025. Credits that are refundable, such as the Child Tax Credit, Earned Income Tax Credit, and Additional Child Tax Credit, offer a tax refund for taxpayers even if the credit is larger than the amount of taxes they owe. These credits are especially beneficial for families with children and households with either low or moderate income because they can substantially increase the amount of the refund.
Many of these credits have also been indexed for inflation which means more taxpayers qualify and income ceilings are higher. More families are expected to qualify and get bigger refunds than they did in previous years, as a result. With the inflation updates and greater availability, these credits remain a key contributor to the formulas for refundable amounts.
D. Inflation-Adjusted Brackets and Credits
What also contributes to the expectation of higher refunds by taxpayers are routine inflation adjustments to tax brackets, standard deductions, and credit phase-out thresholds. These adjustments are intended to prevent “bracket creep,” which occurs when inflation pushes taxpayers into higher tax brackets even though their real income has not increased.
As part of its normal operations, the IRS adjusts the tax brackets and the credit thresholds in order to prevent taxpayers from being unfairly taxed due to inflation. It’s a way of reducing taxable income and keeping or raising the amount of income that is, for all intents and purposes, free from taxation. This year, some of these adjustments automatically boosted refunds and reduced tax liability for many taxpayers, including a lot in the middle class.
3. Analysts’ Predictions for Refund Amounts
Independent commentators and analysts are now pointing to unusually high refund projections for 2026. Preliminary calculations suggest the average refund could end up about $1,000 higher than last year’s, for a total of roughly more than $4,000, as lawmakers’ tax changes take effect and IRS withholding tables lag behind, AP News reports. One market commentator has even called this filing season potentially one of the biggest refund periods ever, driven by the combined effect of retroactive tax cuts and unadjusted paycheck withholding.
Together, these changes could be worth tens of billions of dollars more for taxpayers across the country. But there will be more returns counted and numbers for total refunds could change. And the bottom line for individual taxpayers is that: a lot of people are going to see larger refunds than they did in past years, but just how much will be reliant on their income, household size, and how closely withholding matched their actual tax bills.
4. Impacts on Different Groups of Taxpayers
The amount of tax refund checks in 2026 will be different for various sets of taxpayers. Middle-income workers, especially joint or head of household filers, are expected to see the largest gains from increased standard deductions and expanded credits. Taxpayers who had steady income during 2025 and ended up over-withholding might get a bigger chunk of their taxes back in the form of a refund.
Parents with qualifying children will also see bigger returns, as expanded and inflation-adjusted credits like the Child Tax Credit and Additional Child Tax Credit directly offset tax liability and can even make a refund if tax owed is very low. Seniors can also benefit from new or increased age-based exemptions which reduce taxable earnings. Seniors, in particular, need to be aware of the eligibility rules to make sure they receive all the deductions and credits they qualify for when filing.
5. How and When Refunds Are Issued
Understanding the refund process can help you manage your money. When you file your return electronically and choose direct deposit, you still get your refund the fastest — you will have your money 10 to 21 days after the IRS accepts your return, for most people.
Your refund because of credits such as the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit could be delayed. These are sometimes held until mid‑February or later by the IRS to verify eligibility and to deter fraud. You’re going to have to provide your direct deposit information if you want your refund within the fastest possible time because paper checks are going the way of the dodo. This also prevents lost or delayed checks, and it keeps your money more secure.
To check on the progress of your refund, visit the IRS website, use the IRS2Go app, or check your online IRS account. These services update daily after your return has been accepted, so you can track exactly where your refund is.
6. Common Reasons Refunds May Be Delayed
Even in a normal tax season, getting your refund can take a bit longer than you expect. Small mistakes, missing info, or mismatched numbers on your return can slow things down, because the IRS has to double-check everything. Sometimes they’ll also do identity checks to make sure the return really belongs to you — it’s all about keeping fraud at bay.
If your refund includes credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Child Tax Credit, don’t be surprised if it takes a little extra time. The IRS has to make sure these payments go to the right people. Returns that are more complicated, with things like business income, itemized deductions, or multiple schedules, will also naturally take longer than simpler filings.
The best way to avoid delays is to check your return carefully before sending it in, make sure all the info and documents are complete, and file electronically with direct deposit. Doing a little homework upfront can make a big difference in getting your refund as quickly and as safely as possible.
7. IRS Staffing and Operational Challenges
The IRS is a busy agency right now, and that can play a part in how quickly folks get their money back. They’re not simply processing millions of tax returns—they’re also adapting to new tax laws, revising forms, and moving away from paper checks. For the majority of people, that’s good news because direct deposit is quicker and more secure than receiving a check through the mail. But it also means the IRS has some new machinery to work with, and that can lead to a few bottlenecks, particularly at the beginning of filing season.
If your taxes are relatively straightforward and you file electronically getting your refund by direct deposit, you may expect to see it in a few weeks. But if you have a more complex return, say you own a small business, itemize deductions, or claim refundable credits such as the Earned Income Tax Credit or Child Tax Credit, it might take a little longer. The agency then has to send all that information off for verification to make sure it’s accurate before it sends the money. It may feel a little annoying, but it does help prevent errors and fraud.
But even with all the changes, things are going to get better. The process of updating their systems, reducing the amount of paper they use, and making operations more efficient are all intended to speed up refunds later this year.
That said, there are a few things you can do to help yourself. Make sure you fill electronically, double-check your numbers and your direct deposit information and you are likely to get your refund a few days earlier. Essentially, the more you’re prepared, the smaller the chances are that you’ll experience any delays.
In light of President Trump’s jaw-dropping budget proposed earlier this month, some may be feeling extra anxious about receiving their refunds this year. You’ve done your taxes, and now you’re waiting to find out when you can expect that deposit from the IRS.
So while it’s true there may be some hitches this year, particularly for complicated returns, most taxpayers will get their refunds without too long a wait. A little bit of care when filing goes a long way, and the IRS changes for most taxpayers should be positive: faster, safer refunds once the system fully settles in.
